GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC storm forecast for 20140408-09 - button down the hatches and prepare

Graphics from http://earth.nullschool.net

THE BIG EVENT COMING UP BY MID WEEK WILL BE A GALE FOLLOWED BY A STORM THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MEXICO AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWING A GALE BY TUE NIGHT...WITH A STORM BY EARLY MORNING WED. 

20140405 - TODAY... NW TO N WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. DOMINANT PERIOD17 SECONDS. .TONIGHT...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 5 KT LATE. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. DOMINANT PERIOD 16 SECONDS. 

20140406

20140407

20140408 - WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. DOMINANT PERIOD 15 SECONDS TUE NIGHT...N TO NE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT... SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. DOMINANT PERIOD 14 SECONDS

20140409 - N TO NE WINDS 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. DOMINANT PERIOD 11 SECONDS WED NIGHT...N TO NE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT... SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. DOMINANT PERIOD 10 SECONDS.

...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTEZ BY SUN EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT...THEN WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 25 KT BY MON EVENING...

REFERENCES:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/experimental/epoffshores/data/WRKOFFPZ7

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/hurricane_products/eastern_pacific/weather/discussion.txt

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/pacsea_latestBW.gif

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean.jpg

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Mexico.gif

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/?index_region=ep

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=31.31563&lon=-103.12651&zoom=3&type=terrain&units=metric&tl.play=0&tl.spd=2&viewportstart=now-14439&viewportend=now-39&groupSevere=1&groupHurricane=1&groupFire=1&groupCamsPhotos=1&groupRealEstate=1&eyedropper=0&drought=0&extremes=0&fault=0&favs=0&femaflood=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&fissures=0&fronts=1&hurrevac=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&hur.hd=0&hur.mdl=0&hur.gpce=0&hur.img=0&hur.opa=70&hur.opa2=40&labels=0&lightning=1&livesurge=0&mm=0&ndfd=1&ndfd.var=temp&ndfd.hour=0&ndfd.opa=70&rad=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&sst=1&sst.img=global_sst&sst.opa=90&sat=1&sat.num=1&sat.spd=25&sat.opa=85&sat.gtt1=109&sat.gtt2=109&sat.type=IR4&seismicrisk=0&svr=1&svr.opa=70&ski=0&snowfall=0&stateLines=0&stormreports=1&stormreports.type.tor=1&stormreports.type.hail=1&stormreports.type.wind=1&tor=1&tor.show=now&tfk=0&tsunami=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&cams=0&pix=0&PrecipStart=0



20140411 AFTER THE STORM... the weather remains too much to leave port...

WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 16N95W TO 15N95W
INCLUDING
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT
IN NE SWELL. FROM 02N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 115W WINDS 20 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL.
24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 00N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 115W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL.
48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 110W WINDS 20
KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AN S SWELL.

A SHIP IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REPORTED
STRONG GAP WINDS WERE STILL OCCURRING AROUND 05 UTC. THE
LINGERING STRONG WINDS ARE DUE IN PART TO LOCAL OVERNIGHT
DRAINAGE EFFECTS...AS WELL AS A STILL TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELATED TO HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING...AND ONLY
MODERATE GAP WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LOOKING
AHEAD...THE NEXT ROUND OF GAP WINDS TO GALE FORCE MAY BE TUE
NIGHT INTO WED.

SHORT-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
TODAY - N 17-23, Seas NNW 5-8 feet @ 5sec
TONITE - WNW 10-13, Seas SW 3-5 feet @ 13sec
SATURDAY - NNW 13-18, Seas SSW 3-6 feet @ 14sec
SATURDAY NIGHT - WSW 5-7, Seas SSW 3-5 feet @ 20sec

LONG-TERM TEHUANTEPEC
SUNDAY - S 8-11, Seas SSW 4-6 feet @ 17sec
MONDAY - SW 7-10, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 16sec
TUESDAY - WNW 14-19, Seas SSW 4-7 feet @ 14sec
WEDNESDAY - NNW 27-37, Seas NNW 8-13 feet @ 6sec
THURSDAY - NNW 17-24, Seas SSW 6-10 feet @ 16sec
=====